Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, October 28, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers October 28, 2026, 6:08 PM to 6:37 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On October 28, 2026 at 6:08 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 23.5789. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 6:37 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

10.5318.9427.36Oct 28, 6:08 PM ET6:37 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 6:08 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

10.5318.9427.36Oct 28, 6:08 PM ET6:37 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 6:08 PM ET23.5789
Projected value at 6:37 PM ET10.1332
Actual value at 6:37 PM ET15.2082
Projected change across the window-13.4457
Actual change across the window-8.37066
Bars moving the same direction21 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading19 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.61×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.61 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 72% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 19 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 2 (6:09 PM ET), where they sat 0.407879 apart, and furthest at bar 13 (6:21 PM ET) with a gap of 9.81829. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 16 (6:24 PM ET), a move of -3.0505. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
16:09 PM24.579824.9877+0.407879
66:14 PM20.421927.2652+6.84335
126:20 PM15.500724.8958+9.39509
186:26 PM13.665817.5204+3.85459
246:32 PM9.4308418.3522+8.9214
296:37 PM10.133215.2082+5.07503

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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NT8 can confidence scores change over time for NQ A prediction is an estimate, not a certainty. PredictIndicators publishes its predicted values next to what the market actually did, so they can be checked before relying on them. Predictions vs what happened →

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.