Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, October 28, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers October 28, 2026, 11:14 AM to 11:43 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On October 28, 2026 at 11:14 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 22.7896. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 11:43 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

15.9622.3128.66Oct 28, 11:14 AM ET11:43 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 11:14 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

15.9622.3128.66Oct 28, 11:14 AM ET11:43 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 11:14 AM ET22.7896
Projected value at 11:43 AM ET19.7357
Actual value at 11:43 AM ET27.7255
Projected change across the window-3.05385
Actual change across the window+4.93597
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading24 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.62×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall, while it rose instead. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.62 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 24 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 15 (11:28 AM ET), where they sat 0.0570001 apart, and furthest at bar 28 (11:42 AM ET) with a gap of 9.79186. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 27 (11:41 AM ET), a move of +2.09714. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
111:15 AM19.720322.2973+2.57697
611:20 AM20.892921.322+0.429075
1211:26 AM18.083716.2045-1.87911
1811:32 AM19.122319.3695+0.247178
2411:38 AM20.664823.9862+3.3214
2911:43 AM19.735727.7255+7.98982

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Chat with chart ADX for NinjaTrader 8 PredictIndicators draws the predicted ADX for NQ up to 30 bars ahead on NinjaTrader 8 and MetaTrader 5 charts, next to the ADX you already use. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

MetaTrader AI prediction performance chart A prediction is an estimate, not a certainty. PredictIndicators publishes its predicted values next to what the market actually did, so they can be checked before relying on them. Predictions vs what happened →

How to install an indicator in MetaTrader 5 for Nasdaq 100 futures In NinjaTrader 8 import the zip with Tools → Import → NinjaScript Add On; in MetaTrader 5 run the setup. Then add PredictIndicators to your NQ chart. How to install →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.