Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, October 28, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers October 28, 2026, 4:43 AM to 5:12 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On October 28, 2026 at 4:43 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 27.7329. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 5:12 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

11.8219.7127.6Oct 28, 4:43 AM ET5:12 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 4:43 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

11.8219.7127.6Oct 28, 4:43 AM ET5:12 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 4:43 AM ET27.7329
Projected value at 5:12 AM ET17.901
Actual value at 5:12 AM ET12.5756
Projected change across the window-9.83184
Actual change across the window-15.1573
Bars moving the same direction21 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading28 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.65×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.65 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 72% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 28 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 19 (5:01 AM ET), where they sat 0.0380038 apart, and furthest at bar 29 (5:12 AM ET) with a gap of 5.32541. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 7 (4:50 AM ET), a move of -2.38084. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
14:44 AM27.672828.6316+0.958791
64:49 AM24.817124.5366-0.280419
124:55 AM20.533717.7609-2.77277
185:01 AM16.614216.6522+0.0380038
245:07 AM13.146411.8056-1.34073
295:12 AM17.90112.5756-5.32541

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Download artificial intelligence ADX for NinjaTrader Yes. Alongside the regular ADX, PredictIndicators shows where the ADX is predicted to go next on NQ, updated as each bar closes, in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

NinjaTrader are AI indicators useful for futures PredictIndicators draws the predicted next 30 candles of NQ on your NinjaTrader 8 chart, to the right of the last bar, and updates them in real time. They are predictions, not certainties. NinjaTrader 8 price prediction indicator →

MetaTrader MACD prediction accuracy A prediction is an estimate, not a certainty. PredictIndicators publishes its predicted values next to what the market actually did, so they can be checked before relying on them. Predictions vs what happened →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.