Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, October 18, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers October 18, 2026, 11:01 PM to 11:30 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On October 18, 2026 at 11:01 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 56.3787. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 11:30 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

13.3334.6255.9Oct 18, 11:01 PM ET11:30 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 11:01 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

13.3334.6255.9Oct 18, 11:01 PM ET11:30 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 11:01 PM ET56.3787
Projected value at 11:30 PM ET10.4745
Actual value at 11:30 PM ET30.287
Projected change across the window-45.9042
Actual change across the window-26.0917
Bars moving the same direction23 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading25 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.76×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.76 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 79% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 25 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 30 (11:30 PM ET), where they sat 19.8125 apart, and furthest at bar 2 (11:03 PM ET) with a gap of 40.8849. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 27 (11:28 PM ET), a move of -1.62215. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
111:02 PM18.156557.5144+39.3579
611:07 PM16.473655.22+38.7464
1211:13 PM13.155146.6555+33.5004
1811:19 PM11.561440.9263+29.3648
2411:25 PM11.785836.6849+24.8991
2911:30 PM10.474530.287+19.8125

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.