Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, October 15, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers October 15, 2026, 12:32 PM to 1:01 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On October 15, 2026 at 12:32 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 29.0828. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 1:01 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

23.9930.136.21Oct 15, 12:32 PM ET1:01 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 12:32 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

23.9930.136.21Oct 15, 12:32 PM ET1:01 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 12:32 PM ET29.0828
Projected value at 1:01 PM ET26.0857
Actual value at 1:01 PM ET32.2564
Projected change across the window-2.99706
Actual change across the window+3.17361
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading25 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.94×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall, while it rose instead. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.94 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 25 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 16 (12:47 PM ET), where they sat 0.194982 apart, and furthest at bar 29 (1:01 PM ET) with a gap of 6.17067. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 17 (12:49 PM ET), a move of +1.86973. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
112:33 PM25.374230.3988+5.02462
612:38 PM26.528327.7695+1.24117
1212:44 PM28.848927.0983-1.75062
1812:50 PM33.947235.7734+1.82621
2412:56 PM33.095733.8936+0.797856
291:01 PM26.085732.2564+6.17067

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.