Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, October 6, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers October 6, 2026, 6:23 PM to 6:52 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On October 6, 2026 at 6:23 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 46.2469. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 6:52 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

24.8335.4145.99Oct 6, 6:23 PM ET6:52 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 6:23 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

24.8335.4145.99Oct 6, 6:23 PM ET6:52 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 6:23 PM ET46.2469
Projected value at 6:52 PM ET27.5316
Actual value at 6:52 PM ET23.4327
Projected change across the window-18.7153
Actual change across the window-22.8143
Bars moving the same direction24 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading28 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.82×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.82 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 83% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 28 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 21 (6:43 PM ET), where they sat 0.165427 apart, and furthest at bar 1 (6:24 PM ET) with a gap of 11.7813. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 13 (6:36 PM ET), a move of -1.86877. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
16:24 PM35.625347.4066+11.7813
66:29 PM34.0742.6887+8.61865
126:35 PM31.660139.925+8.26484
186:41 PM30.273232.5681+2.29485
246:47 PM28.522524.1466-4.37591
296:52 PM27.531623.4327-4.09894

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.