Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, October 6, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers October 6, 2026, 9:19 AM to 9:48 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On October 6, 2026 at 9:19 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 17.5036. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 9:48 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

17.4220.4923.55Oct 6, 9:19 AM ET9:48 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 9:19 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

17.4220.4923.55Oct 6, 9:19 AM ET9:48 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 9:19 AM ET17.5036
Projected value at 9:48 AM ET22.5477
Actual value at 9:48 AM ET23.0879
Projected change across the window+5.04406
Actual change across the window+5.58425
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading27 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.90×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.90 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 27 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 9 (9:27 AM ET), where they sat 0.0593962 apart, and furthest at bar 19 (9:38 AM ET) with a gap of 4.0056. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 26 (9:45 AM ET), a move of +1.46212. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
19:20 AM18.631118.0402-0.590915
69:25 AM18.145117.5635-0.581658
129:31 AM19.541920.851+1.30907
189:37 AM21.103517.5747-3.5288
249:43 AM21.780620.9161-0.864517
299:48 AM22.547723.0879+0.540189

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.