Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, October 5, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers October 5, 2026, 2:56 AM to 3:25 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On October 5, 2026 at 2:56 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 51.8555. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 3:25 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

22.8936.4650.03Oct 5, 2:56 AM ET3:25 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 2:56 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

22.8936.4650.03Oct 5, 2:56 AM ET3:25 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 2:56 AM ET51.8555
Projected value at 3:25 AM ET23.3953
Actual value at 3:25 AM ET22.0862
Projected change across the window-28.4602
Actual change across the window-29.7693
Bars moving the same direction25 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.96×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.96 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 86% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 25 (3:20 AM ET), where they sat 0.248754 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (2:56 AM ET) with a gap of 25.7118. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 22 (3:18 AM ET), a move of -2.61601. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
12:57 AM25.810250.3477+24.5376
63:02 AM24.443344.2436+19.8003
123:08 AM23.713836.2108+12.497
183:14 AM23.803534.0068+10.2033
243:20 AM23.09723.3457+0.248754
293:25 AM23.395322.0862-1.30911

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.