Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 30, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 30, 2026, 11:04 PM to 11:33 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 30, 2026 at 11:04 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 25.6363. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 11:33 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

26.8235.6444.46Sep 30, 11:04 PM ET11:33 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 11:04 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

26.8235.6444.46Sep 30, 11:04 PM ET11:33 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 11:04 PM ET25.6363
Projected value at 11:33 PM ET30.3495
Actual value at 11:33 PM ET30.099
Projected change across the window+4.71318
Actual change across the window+4.46269
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.06×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.06 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 9 (11:12 PM ET), where they sat 0.24884 apart, and furthest at bar 22 (11:26 PM ET) with a gap of 12.4058. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 23 (11:27 PM ET), a move of -2.59635. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
111:05 PM31.229225.8661-5.3631
611:10 PM34.919232.6548-2.26442
1211:16 PM35.08839.8843+4.7963
1811:22 PM33.906644.3468+10.4402
2411:28 PM32.326539.9761+7.64966
2911:33 PM30.349530.099-0.25049

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.