Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 29, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 29, 2026, 10:27 AM to 10:56 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 29, 2026 at 10:27 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 15.9964. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 10:56 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

14.4621.9829.5Sep 29, 10:27 AM ET10:56 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 10:27 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

14.4621.9829.5Sep 29, 10:27 AM ET10:56 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 10:27 AM ET15.9964
Projected value at 10:56 AM ET21.094
Actual value at 10:56 AM ET21.9932
Projected change across the window+5.09756
Actual change across the window+5.99676
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading28 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.85×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.85 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 28 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 29 (10:55 AM ET), where they sat 0.0652086 apart, and furthest at bar 14 (10:41 AM ET) with a gap of 10.2919. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 12 (10:39 AM ET), a move of +1.7724. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
110:28 AM14.747416.2712+1.52377
610:33 AM18.744720.8849+2.14023
1210:39 AM20.082927.725+7.64216
1810:45 AM20.752926.1165+5.36353
2410:51 AM20.705621.2096+0.503957
2910:56 AM21.09421.9932+0.899197

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.