Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 28, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 28, 2026, 10:22 AM to 10:51 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 28, 2026 at 10:22 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 14.711. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 10:51 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

15.1521.2127.28Sep 28, 10:22 AM ET10:51 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 10:22 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

15.1521.2127.28Sep 28, 10:22 AM ET10:51 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 10:22 AM ET14.711
Projected value at 10:51 AM ET28.0908
Actual value at 10:51 AM ET26.449
Projected change across the window+13.3798
Actual change across the window+11.738
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading28 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.14×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.14 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 28 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 15 (10:36 AM ET), where they sat 0.0134751 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (10:22 AM ET) with a gap of 12.5602. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 12 (10:34 AM ET), a move of -1.77057. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
110:23 AM27.17215.7933-11.3787
610:28 AM19.99819.6493-0.348719
1210:34 AM23.371922.6534-0.718528
1810:40 AM15.932521.6738+5.74122
2410:46 AM18.494321.9084+3.41409
2910:51 AM28.090826.449-1.64181

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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NinjaTrader future candle visualization for Nasdaq 100 futures PredictIndicators draws the predicted next 30 candles of NQ on your NinjaTrader 8 chart, to the right of the last bar, and updates them in real time. They are predictions, not certainties. NinjaTrader 8 price prediction indicator →

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.