Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 28, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 28, 2026, 12:17 AM to 12:46 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 28, 2026 at 12:17 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 51.6881. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 12:46 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

11.4431.2651.09Sep 28, 12:17 AM ET12:46 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 12:17 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

11.4431.2651.09Sep 28, 12:17 AM ET12:46 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 12:17 AM ET51.6881
Projected value at 12:46 AM ET9.07538
Actual value at 12:46 AM ET25.8792
Projected change across the window-42.6128
Actual change across the window-25.809
Bars moving the same direction23 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading26 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.65×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.65 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 79% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 26 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 30 (12:46 AM ET), where they sat 16.8038 apart, and furthest at bar 4 (12:21 AM ET) with a gap of 34.1121. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 29 (12:46 AM ET), a move of -2.24062. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
112:18 AM20.863553.0064+32.1429
612:23 AM17.427449.7467+32.3193
1212:29 AM14.47942.0844+27.6054
1812:35 AM11.372631.3687+19.9961
2412:41 AM9.8106231.9541+22.1435
2912:46 AM9.0753825.8792+16.8038

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.