Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 9:16 PM to 9:45 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 27, 2026 at 9:16 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 13.9677. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 9:45 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

14.9823.5332.09Sep 27, 9:16 PM ET9:45 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 9:16 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

14.9823.5332.09Sep 27, 9:16 PM ET9:45 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 9:16 PM ET13.9677
Projected value at 9:45 PM ET22.7631
Actual value at 9:45 PM ET24.7459
Projected change across the window+8.79544
Actual change across the window+10.7783
Bars moving the same direction22 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading28 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.82×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.82 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 76% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 28 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 19 (9:34 PM ET), where they sat 0.406876 apart, and furthest at bar 3 (9:19 PM ET) with a gap of 11.4158. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 21 (9:37 PM ET), a move of +2.21188. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
19:17 PM24.399413.8351-10.5644
69:22 PM26.891516.314-10.5775
129:28 PM24.970521.1107-3.85982
189:34 PM25.670926.0778+0.406876
249:40 PM26.550331.8265+5.27623
299:45 PM22.763124.7459+1.98281

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.