Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 25, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 25, 2026, 12:56 AM to 1:25 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 25, 2026 at 12:56 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 13.991. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 1:25 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

14.2517.7721.29Sep 25, 12:56 AM ET1:25 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 12:56 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

14.2517.7721.29Sep 25, 12:56 AM ET1:25 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 12:56 AM ET13.991
Projected value at 1:25 AM ET21.3328
Actual value at 1:25 AM ET18.1883
Projected change across the window+7.3418
Actual change across the window+4.19733
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.75×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The projection overshot: it called for 1.75 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 10 (1:05 AM ET), where they sat 0.0457468 apart, and furthest at bar 24 (1:20 AM ET) with a gap of 5.48398. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 20 (1:16 AM ET), a move of -1.90643. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
112:57 AM13.877513.9303+0.0528161
61:02 AM14.972915.229+0.256162
121:08 AM17.656318.8289+1.17267
181:14 AM19.193121.0351+1.842
241:20 AM20.517815.0338-5.48398
291:25 AM21.332818.1883-3.14447

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Indicator to predict the next candle on Nasdaq 100 futures Yes. On a NinjaTrader 8 or MT5 NQ chart, PredictIndicators shows the predicted open, high, low and close of the coming bars to the right of the last bar. Next candle prediction indicator →

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.