Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 25, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 25, 2026, 12:54 AM to 1:23 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 25, 2026 at 12:54 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 14.3062. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 1:23 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

14.7518.0321.32Sep 25, 12:54 AM ET1:23 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 12:54 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

14.7518.0321.32Sep 25, 12:54 AM ET1:23 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 12:54 AM ET14.3062
Projected value at 1:23 AM ET21.2236
Actual value at 1:23 AM ET19.2661
Projected change across the window+6.91741
Actual change across the window+4.95993
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.39×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The projection overshot: it called for 1.39 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 7 (1:00 AM ET), where they sat 0.124646 apart, and furthest at bar 22 (1:16 AM ET) with a gap of 4.59259. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 18 (1:12 AM ET), a move of -1.90643. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
112:55 AM15.017915.2549+0.237038
61:00 AM15.302615.1779-0.124646
121:06 AM16.974120.5366+3.56242
181:12 AM18.643617.3584-1.28517
241:18 AM20.104515.6402-4.46431
291:23 AM21.223619.2661-1.95748

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

See live indicator predictions on PredictIndicators.ai →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.