Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 24, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 24, 2026, 11:42 PM to 12:11 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 24, 2026 at 11:42 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 14.0589. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 12:11 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

15.1826.2437.31Sep 24, 11:42 PM ET12:11 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 11:42 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

15.1826.2437.31Sep 24, 11:42 PM ET12:11 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 11:42 PM ET14.0589
Projected value at 12:11 AM ET22.3429
Actual value at 12:11 AM ET22.6198
Projected change across the window+8.28397
Actual change across the window+8.56087
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.97×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.97 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 2 (11:43 PM ET), where they sat 0.154463 apart, and furthest at bar 19 (12:01 AM ET) with a gap of 18.0906. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 28 (12:10 AM ET), a move of -2.3021. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
111:43 PM14.500714.3462-0.154463
611:48 PM16.277219.7516+3.47442
1211:54 PM18.640927.096+8.45508
1812:00 AM20.422337.0552+16.6329
2412:06 AM21.80132.0053+10.2043
2912:11 AM22.342922.6198+0.276906

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.