Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 24, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 24, 2026, 11:41 PM to 12:10 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 24, 2026 at 11:41 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 14.0589. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 12:10 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

13.6725.4437.21Sep 24, 11:41 PM ET12:10 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 11:41 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

13.6725.4437.21Sep 24, 11:41 PM ET12:10 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 11:41 PM ET14.0589
Projected value at 12:10 AM ET21.3764
Actual value at 12:10 AM ET22.6198
Projected change across the window+7.31751
Actual change across the window+8.56087
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading25 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.85×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.85 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 25 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 30 (12:10 AM ET), where they sat 1.24337 apart, and furthest at bar 19 (12:00 AM ET) with a gap of 19.1631. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 28 (12:09 AM ET), a move of -2.3021. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
111:42 PM12.382314.3462+1.96388
611:47 PM14.519319.7516+5.23231
1211:53 PM16.991827.096+10.1041
1811:59 PM19.078837.0552+17.9764
2412:05 AM20.86632.0053+11.1392
2912:10 AM21.376422.6198+1.24337

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Buy predictive AI ADX for MT5 Yes. Alongside the regular ADX, PredictIndicators shows where the ADX is predicted to go next on NQ, updated as each bar closes, in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

NinjaTrader compare predictions with actual candles for NQ A prediction is an estimate, not a certainty. PredictIndicators publishes its predicted values next to what the market actually did, so they can be checked before relying on them. Predictions vs what happened →

Future candle indicator for NQ in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 PredictIndicators is a next candle prediction indicator: it draws the predicted next candles of NQ, up to 30 bars ahead, on your NinjaTrader 8 or MetaTrader 5 chart and redraws them as each bar closes. Next candle prediction indicator →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.