Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 24, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 24, 2026, 11:41 PM to 12:10 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 24, 2026 at 11:41 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 14.0589. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 12:10 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

13.6725.4437.21Sep 24, 11:41 PM ET12:10 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 11:41 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

13.6725.4437.21Sep 24, 11:41 PM ET12:10 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 11:41 PM ET14.0589
Projected value at 12:10 AM ET21.3764
Actual value at 12:10 AM ET22.6198
Projected change across the window+7.31751
Actual change across the window+8.56087
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading25 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.85×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.85 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 25 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 30 (12:10 AM ET), where they sat 1.24337 apart, and furthest at bar 19 (12:00 AM ET) with a gap of 19.1631. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 28 (12:09 AM ET), a move of -2.3021. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
111:42 PM12.382314.3462+1.96388
611:47 PM14.519319.7516+5.23231
1211:53 PM16.991827.096+10.1041
1811:59 PM19.078837.0552+17.9764
2412:05 AM20.86632.0053+11.1392
2912:10 AM21.376422.6198+1.24337

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.