Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 24, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 24, 2026, 11:07 PM to 11:36 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 24, 2026 at 11:07 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 10.856. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 11:36 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

1115.820.6Sep 24, 11:07 PM ET11:36 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 11:07 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

1115.820.6Sep 24, 11:07 PM ET11:36 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 11:07 PM ET10.856
Projected value at 11:36 PM ET21.1638
Actual value at 11:36 PM ET20.135
Projected change across the window+10.3077
Actual change across the window+9.27891
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading25 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.11×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.11 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 25 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 30 (11:36 PM ET), where they sat 1.02881 apart, and furthest at bar 11 (11:18 PM ET) with a gap of 6.27751. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 27 (11:34 PM ET), a move of +0.990851. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
111:08 PM14.263910.82-3.44387
611:13 PM15.76411.3639-4.40009
1211:19 PM18.029812.2645-5.76533
1811:25 PM19.292414.5813-4.71111
2411:31 PM20.563818.7412-1.82262
2911:36 PM21.163820.135-1.02881

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.