Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 24, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 24, 2026, 10:54 PM to 11:23 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 24, 2026 at 10:54 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 12.2645. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 11:23 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

13.422230.58Sep 24, 10:54 PM ET11:23 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 10:54 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

13.422230.58Sep 24, 10:54 PM ET11:23 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 10:54 PM ET12.2645
Projected value at 11:23 PM ET21.5454
Actual value at 11:23 PM ET29.1365
Projected change across the window+9.28091
Actual change across the window+16.872
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.55×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.55 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 13 (11:06 PM ET), where they sat 0.207952 apart, and furthest at bar 27 (11:21 PM ET) with a gap of 10.182. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 26 (11:20 PM ET), a move of +1.5849. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
110:55 PM19.041412.9231-6.11831
611:00 PM18.250214.5813-3.66885
1211:06 PM18.949218.7412-0.207952
1811:12 PM19.896721.1833+1.28659
2411:18 PM21.239628.2212+6.98152
2911:23 PM21.545429.1365+7.59114

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Download MetaTrader predictive ADX Yes. Alongside the regular ADX, PredictIndicators shows where the ADX is predicted to go next on NQ, updated as each bar closes, in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

How to import a NinjaTrader 8 indicator for NQ In NinjaTrader 8 import the zip with Tools → Import → NinjaScript Add On; in MetaTrader 5 run the setup. Then add PredictIndicators to your NQ chart. How to install →

MetaTrader compare predictions with actual candles for intraday futures A prediction is an estimate, not a certainty. PredictIndicators publishes its predicted values next to what the market actually did, so they can be checked before relying on them. Predictions vs what happened →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.