Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 24, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 24, 2026, 4:46 PM to 5:15 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 24, 2026 at 4:46 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 37.3281. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 5:15 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

14.7225.6536.57Sep 24, 4:46 PM ET5:15 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 4:46 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

14.7225.6536.57Sep 24, 4:46 PM ET5:15 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 4:46 PM ET37.3281
Projected value at 5:15 PM ET24.3332
Actual value at 5:15 PM ET13.9458
Projected change across the window-12.995
Actual change across the window-23.3824
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading26 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.56×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.56 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 26 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 15 (5:00 PM ET), where they sat 0.191012 apart, and furthest at bar 25 (5:11 PM ET) with a gap of 11.3503. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 16 (5:02 PM ET), a move of -3.54908. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
14:47 PM30.647838.0361+7.38826
64:52 PM29.520737.3097+7.78906
124:58 PM26.767431.6802+4.91277
185:04 PM25.440317.5255-7.91488
245:10 PM24.700113.7485-10.9515
295:15 PM24.333213.9458-10.3874

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Chat with chart ADX for NT8 PredictIndicators draws the predicted ADX for NQ up to 30 bars ahead on NinjaTrader 8 and MetaTrader 5 charts, next to the ADX you already use. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

NinjaTrader confidence score for next candles A prediction is an estimate, not a certainty. PredictIndicators publishes its predicted values next to what the market actually did, so they can be checked before relying on them. Predictions vs what happened →

MetaTrader MACD prediction indicator for NQ Yes. The same PredictIndicators predictions run on MetaTrader 5 charts, with one licence covering MT5 and NinjaTrader 8. MetaTrader 5 price prediction indicator →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.