Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 24, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 24, 2026, 4:37 PM to 5:06 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 24, 2026 at 4:37 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 38.0361. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 5:06 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

14.7225.6536.57Sep 24, 4:37 PM ET5:06 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 4:37 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

14.7225.6536.57Sep 24, 4:37 PM ET5:06 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 4:37 PM ET38.0361
Projected value at 5:06 PM ET22.6143
Actual value at 5:06 PM ET13.8493
Projected change across the window-15.4218
Actual change across the window-24.1868
Bars moving the same direction21 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.64×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.64 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 72% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 15 (4:51 PM ET), where they sat 0.515977 apart, and furthest at bar 6 (4:43 PM ET) with a gap of 10.7292. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 15 (4:52 PM ET), a move of -3.54908. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
14:38 PM32.400837.8577+5.45692
64:43 PM27.017337.7465+10.7292
124:49 PM24.38229.9521+5.5701
184:55 PM22.944117.1955-5.74858
245:01 PM23.049813.2561-9.7937
295:06 PM22.614313.8493-8.76504

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.