Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 24, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 24, 2026, 3:05 PM to 3:34 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 24, 2026 at 3:05 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 16.4591. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 3:34 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

13.9822.0630.14Sep 24, 3:05 PM ET3:34 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 3:05 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

13.9822.0630.14Sep 24, 3:05 PM ET3:34 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 3:05 PM ET16.4591
Projected value at 3:34 PM ET22.163
Actual value at 3:34 PM ET22.8062
Projected change across the window+5.70385
Actual change across the window+6.34707
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading18 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.90×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.90 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 18 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 29 (3:33 PM ET), where they sat 0.0668006 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (3:05 PM ET) with a gap of 14.771. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 8 (3:13 PM ET), a move of -1.42467. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
13:06 PM29.710117.3429-12.3672
63:11 PM25.357819.5381-5.81963
123:17 PM22.605113.1754-9.42965
183:23 PM22.061116.1437-5.91737
243:29 PM22.223318.0591-4.16427
293:34 PM22.16322.8062+0.64322

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Best AI ADX for NinjaTrader Yes. Alongside the regular ADX, PredictIndicators shows where the ADX is predicted to go next on NQ, updated as each bar closes, in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

NinjaTrader future ADX trend strength for Nasdaq 100 futures PredictIndicators draws the predicted next 30 candles of NQ on your NinjaTrader 8 chart, to the right of the last bar, and updates them in real time. They are predictions, not certainties. NinjaTrader 8 price prediction indicator →

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.