Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 24, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 24, 2026, 10:26 AM to 10:55 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 24, 2026 at 10:26 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 14.4989. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 10:55 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

13.8517.9622.08Sep 24, 10:26 AM ET10:55 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 10:26 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

13.8517.9622.08Sep 24, 10:26 AM ET10:55 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 10:26 AM ET14.4989
Projected value at 10:55 AM ET22.6368
Actual value at 10:55 AM ET19.0276
Projected change across the window+8.1379
Actual change across the window+4.52865
Bars moving the same direction21 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading23 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.80×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The projection overshot: it called for 1.80 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 72% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 23 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 25 (10:50 AM ET), where they sat 3.25764 apart, and furthest at bar 12 (10:38 AM ET) with a gap of 7.1979. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 23 (10:49 AM ET), a move of +1.25409. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
110:27 AM19.726814.6779-5.04893
610:32 AM20.824815.3086-5.51621
1210:38 AM21.08513.8871-7.1979
1810:44 AM22.014515.5571-6.4574
2410:50 AM22.397819.1402-3.25764
2910:55 AM22.636819.0276-3.60925

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.