Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 24, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 24, 2026, 10:23 AM to 10:52 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 24, 2026 at 10:23 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 13.8692. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 10:52 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

13.7717.3520.92Sep 24, 10:23 AM ET10:52 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 10:23 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

13.7717.3520.92Sep 24, 10:23 AM ET10:52 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 10:23 AM ET13.8692
Projected value at 10:52 AM ET21.3923
Actual value at 10:52 AM ET20.844
Projected change across the window+7.52305
Actual change across the window+6.97474
Bars moving the same direction21 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading27 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.08×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.08 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 72% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 27 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 30 (10:52 AM ET), where they sat 0.548307 apart, and furthest at bar 15 (10:38 AM ET) with a gap of 4.40184. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 21 (10:44 AM ET), a move of +1.25409. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
110:24 AM15.58113.2928-2.28824
610:29 AM16.913215.9033-1.00991
1210:35 AM18.507415.146-3.36145
1810:41 AM20.073716.2764-3.79732
2410:47 AM20.765518.3793-2.38618
2910:52 AM21.392320.844-0.548307

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.