Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 23, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 23, 2026, 11:51 PM to 12:20 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 23, 2026 at 11:51 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 45.3225. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 12:20 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

25.6936.0146.33Sep 23, 11:51 PM ET12:20 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 11:51 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

25.6936.0146.33Sep 23, 11:51 PM ET12:20 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 11:51 PM ET45.3225
Projected value at 12:20 AM ET24.3025
Actual value at 12:20 AM ET25.461
Projected change across the window-21.02
Actual change across the window-19.8615
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading23 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.06×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.06 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 23 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 2 (11:52 PM ET), where they sat 0.203731 apart, and furthest at bar 15 (12:06 AM ET) with a gap of 18.7799. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 29 (12:20 AM ET), a move of -2.32857. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
111:52 PM44.94844.7443-0.203731
611:57 PM36.824544.7932+7.96873
1212:03 AM31.186847.0575+15.8706
1812:09 AM27.633742.4925+14.8588
2412:15 AM25.40234.2982+8.89626
2912:20 AM24.302525.461+1.15849

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.