Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 23, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 23, 2026, 11:04 PM to 11:33 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 23, 2026 at 11:04 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 6.77188. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 11:33 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

7.22913.7120.19Sep 23, 11:04 PM ET11:33 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 11:04 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

7.22913.7120.19Sep 23, 11:04 PM ET11:33 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 11:04 PM ET6.77188
Projected value at 11:33 PM ET21.0586
Actual value at 11:33 PM ET18.0534
Projected change across the window+14.2867
Actual change across the window+11.2815
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading27 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.27×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The projection overshot: it called for 1.27 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 27 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 30 (11:33 PM ET), where they sat 3.00525 apart, and furthest at bar 7 (11:11 PM ET) with a gap of 9.08499. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 26 (11:30 PM ET), a move of +1.14317. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
111:05 PM15.01026.49856-8.51167
611:10 PM16.72487.88642-8.83839
1211:16 PM18.479310.6826-7.7967
1811:22 PM19.837113.2896-6.54745
2411:28 PM20.599613.8403-6.75927
2911:33 PM21.058618.0534-3.00525

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Download NinjaTrader 8 predictive AI ADX Yes. Alongside the regular ADX, PredictIndicators shows where the ADX is predicted to go next on NQ, updated as each bar closes, in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

NinjaTrader why do AI indicator predictions change for Nasdaq 100 futures A prediction is an estimate, not a certainty. PredictIndicators publishes its predicted values next to what the market actually did, so they can be checked before relying on them. Predictions vs what happened →

NT8 AI assistant that reads open indicators The PredictIndicators chat indicator runs live on NinjaTrader 8 and MetaTrader 5 charts: ask about the NQ chart, the predicted candles and the indicators, and the answer appears on the chart. AI chat indicator →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.