Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 23, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 23, 2026, 4:21 PM to 4:50 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 23, 2026 at 4:21 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 14.2447. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 4:50 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

12.1617.1122.06Sep 23, 4:21 PM ET4:50 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 4:21 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

12.1617.1122.06Sep 23, 4:21 PM ET4:50 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 4:21 PM ET14.2447
Projected value at 4:50 PM ET20.9408
Actual value at 4:50 PM ET22.7284
Projected change across the window+6.69606
Actual change across the window+8.48369
Bars moving the same direction21 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading26 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.79×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.79 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 72% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 26 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 5 (4:25 PM ET), where they sat 0.0299437 apart, and furthest at bar 19 (4:40 PM ET) with a gap of 3.12521. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 13 (4:34 PM ET), a move of +1.07199. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
14:22 PM11.612113.4572+1.8451
64:27 PM13.662914.2719+0.608977
124:33 PM16.512215.2608-1.25142
184:39 PM18.161821.0017+2.83988
244:45 PM19.76621.0899+1.32391
294:50 PM20.940822.7284+1.78763

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

ADX crossover prediction MT5 PredictIndicators draws the predicted ADX for NQ up to 30 bars ahead on NinjaTrader 8 and MetaTrader 5 charts, next to the ADX you already use. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

Future candle indicator for NQ in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 PredictIndicators is a next candle prediction indicator: it draws the predicted next candles of NQ, up to 30 bars ahead, on your NinjaTrader 8 or MetaTrader 5 chart and redraws them as each bar closes. Next candle prediction indicator →

How to import a NinjaTrader 8 indicator for NQ In NinjaTrader 8 import the zip with Tools → Import → NinjaScript Add On; in MetaTrader 5 run the setup. Then add PredictIndicators to your NQ chart. How to install →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.