Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 23, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 23, 2026, 3:32 PM to 4:01 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 23, 2026 at 3:32 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 15.3919. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 4:01 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

12.1216.8521.59Sep 23, 3:32 PM ET4:01 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 3:32 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

12.1216.8521.59Sep 23, 3:32 PM ET4:01 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 3:32 PM ET15.3919
Projected value at 4:01 PM ET20.6573
Actual value at 4:01 PM ET22.2259
Projected change across the window+5.26544
Actual change across the window+6.83409
Bars moving the same direction21 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading23 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.77×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.77 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 72% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 23 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 9 (3:40 PM ET), where they sat 0.0414589 apart, and furthest at bar 18 (3:50 PM ET) with a gap of 4.16477. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 28 (4:00 PM ET), a move of +1.28729. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
13:33 PM11.552115.1719+3.61983
63:38 PM13.162313.9865+0.824255
123:44 PM16.065214.4241-1.64115
183:50 PM18.167914.0032-4.16477
243:56 PM19.709218.1454-1.56386
294:01 PM20.657322.2259+1.56865

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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NinjaTrader can AI predict future indicator values accurately for Nasdaq 100 futures A prediction is an estimate, not a certainty. PredictIndicators publishes its predicted values next to what the market actually did, so they can be checked before relying on them. Predictions vs what happened →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.