Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 22, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 22, 2026, 11:39 AM to 12:08 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 22, 2026 at 11:39 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 14.377. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 12:08 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

15.2623.6131.96Sep 22, 11:39 AM ET12:08 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 11:39 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

15.2623.6131.96Sep 22, 11:39 AM ET12:08 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 11:39 AM ET14.377
Projected value at 12:08 PM ET22.9597
Actual value at 12:08 PM ET30.0554
Projected change across the window+8.58274
Actual change across the window+15.6784
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading28 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.55×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.55 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 28 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 14 (11:52 AM ET), where they sat 0.154616 apart, and furthest at bar 26 (12:05 PM ET) with a gap of 10.2616. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 29 (12:08 PM ET), a move of -2.01857. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
111:40 AM18.407114.1369-4.27016
611:45 AM20.665517.7052-2.96026
1211:51 AM22.120321.3275-0.792776
1811:57 AM22.534727.7033+5.16853
2412:03 PM22.576631.147+8.57034
2912:08 PM22.959730.0554+7.09569

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Automated analysis ADX for MetaTrader 5 PredictIndicators draws the predicted ADX for NQ up to 30 bars ahead on NinjaTrader 8 and MetaTrader 5 charts, next to the ADX you already use. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.