Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 22, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 22, 2026, 7:39 AM to 8:08 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 22, 2026 at 7:39 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 11.1904. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 8:08 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

10.1214.4718.82Sep 22, 7:39 AM ET8:08 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 7:39 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

10.1214.4718.82Sep 22, 7:39 AM ET8:08 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 7:39 AM ET11.1904
Projected value at 8:08 AM ET19.4057
Actual value at 8:08 AM ET16.5153
Projected change across the window+8.21531
Actual change across the window+5.32494
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading18 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.54×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The projection overshot: it called for 1.54 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 18 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 28 (8:06 AM ET), where they sat 2.81436 apart, and furthest at bar 16 (7:55 AM ET) with a gap of 5.93607. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 21 (8:00 AM ET), a move of +1.05322. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
17:40 AM13.977310.8284-3.14885
67:45 AM14.259710.0608-4.19884
127:51 AM15.854411.2942-4.56017
187:57 AM17.56212.7987-4.7633
248:03 AM18.747114.3878-4.35929
298:08 AM19.405716.5153-2.89037

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Automated analysis ADX for NinjaTrader 8 Yes. Alongside the regular ADX, PredictIndicators shows where the ADX is predicted to go next on NQ, updated as each bar closes, in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

NinjaTrader AI directional movement chart Yes. PredictIndicators runs inside NinjaTrader 8: the predicted NQ candles and the predicted indicators sit on your own chart, next to the indicators you already use. NinjaTrader 8 price prediction indicator →

MetaTrader Wiseman oscillator prediction PredictIndicators brings predicted candles to MetaTrader 5: the next 30 NQ bars appear on your MT5 chart and update in real time. A prediction is an estimate, not a certainty. MetaTrader 5 price prediction indicator →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.