Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 22, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 22, 2026, 3:32 AM to 4:01 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 22, 2026 at 3:32 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 10.6703. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 4:01 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

10.5317.2724.02Sep 22, 3:32 AM ET4:01 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 3:32 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

10.5317.2724.02Sep 22, 3:32 AM ET4:01 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 3:32 AM ET10.6703
Projected value at 4:01 AM ET18.2496
Actual value at 4:01 AM ET24.9205
Projected change across the window+7.57932
Actual change across the window+14.2502
Bars moving the same direction22 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.53×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.53 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 76% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 6 (3:37 AM ET), where they sat 0.0203475 apart, and furthest at bar 29 (4:01 AM ET) with a gap of 6.67089. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 26 (3:58 AM ET), a move of +1.31399. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
13:33 AM10.36489.62493-0.739877
63:38 AM11.974412.0179+0.0435455
123:44 AM14.519116.3287+1.80964
183:50 AM16.713415.5812-1.13211
243:56 AM18.111420.1353+2.02396
294:01 AM18.249624.9205+6.67089

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.