Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 22, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 22, 2026, 2:45 AM to 3:14 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 22, 2026 at 2:45 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 25.6936. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 3:14 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

12.2518.5524.85Sep 22, 2:45 AM ET3:14 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 2:45 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

12.2518.5524.85Sep 22, 2:45 AM ET3:14 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 2:45 AM ET25.6936
Projected value at 3:14 AM ET19.6561
Actual value at 3:14 AM ET14.7524
Projected change across the window-6.03753
Actual change across the window-10.9412
Bars moving the same direction22 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.55×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.55 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 76% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 7 (2:51 AM ET), where they sat 0.548926 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (2:45 AM ET) with a gap of 8.42656. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 6 (2:51 AM ET), a move of -2.09008. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
12:46 AM17.027725.1034+8.07577
62:51 AM16.789916.241-0.548926
122:57 AM17.312715.0074-2.30535
183:03 AM17.848611.6364-6.21218
243:09 AM18.692314.8188-3.87345
293:14 AM19.656114.7524-4.90362

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.