Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 21, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 21, 2026, 8:12 PM to 8:41 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 21, 2026 at 8:12 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 30.1878. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 8:41 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

27.9936.9445.88Sep 21, 8:12 PM ET8:41 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 8:12 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

27.9936.9445.88Sep 21, 8:12 PM ET8:41 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 8:12 PM ET30.1878
Projected value at 8:41 PM ET26.7857
Actual value at 8:41 PM ET34.1193
Projected change across the window-3.40211
Actual change across the window+3.93149
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading19 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.87×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall, while it rose instead. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.87 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 19 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 8 (8:19 PM ET), where they sat 0.23158 apart, and furthest at bar 18 (8:30 PM ET) with a gap of 15.5564. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 9 (8:21 PM ET), a move of +2.30274. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
18:13 PM36.975430.6416-6.33388
68:18 PM38.732636.7368-1.99576
128:24 PM35.044544.2531+9.20852
188:30 PM30.891746.4481+15.5564
248:36 PM28.689537.9609+9.27139
298:41 PM26.785734.1193+7.3336

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.