Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 21, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 21, 2026, 1:01 PM to 1:30 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 21, 2026 at 1:01 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 17.663. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 1:30 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

15.8822.4128.93Sep 21, 1:01 PM ET1:30 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 1:01 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

15.8822.4128.93Sep 21, 1:01 PM ET1:30 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 1:01 PM ET17.663
Projected value at 1:30 PM ET23.3024
Actual value at 1:30 PM ET27.4472
Projected change across the window+5.63937
Actual change across the window+9.78421
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading24 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.58×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.58 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 24 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 3 (1:03 PM ET), where they sat 0.362046 apart, and furthest at bar 24 (1:25 PM ET) with a gap of 6.46677. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 20 (1:21 PM ET), a move of +1.59045. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
11:02 PM16.251117.224+0.9729
61:07 PM18.367914.9998-3.36812
121:13 PM20.793220.3329-0.460286
181:19 PM22.561224.4234+1.8622
241:25 PM23.34429.8107+6.46677
291:30 PM23.302427.4472+4.14484

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Buy MetaTrader AI ADX Yes. Alongside the regular ADX, PredictIndicators shows where the ADX is predicted to go next on NQ, updated as each bar closes, in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

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Next candle prediction indicator for MT5 on NQ PredictIndicators is a next candle prediction indicator: it draws the predicted next candles of NQ, up to 30 bars ahead, on your NinjaTrader 8 or MetaTrader 5 chart and redraws them as each bar closes. Next candle prediction indicator →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.