Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 16, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 16, 2026, 10:49 PM to 11:18 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 16, 2026 at 10:49 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 51.1749. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 11:18 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

17.6433.3549.06Sep 16, 10:49 PM ET11:18 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 10:49 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

17.6433.3549.06Sep 16, 10:49 PM ET11:18 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 10:49 PM ET51.1749
Projected value at 11:18 PM ET15.5556
Actual value at 11:18 PM ET17.6926
Projected change across the window-35.6193
Actual change across the window-33.4823
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.06×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.06 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 30 (11:18 PM ET), where they sat 2.13696 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (10:49 PM ET) with a gap of 34.8001. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 14 (11:03 PM ET), a move of -1.96652. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
110:50 PM16.599149.9635+33.3644
610:55 PM16.185546.1863+30.0008
1211:01 PM15.959838.498+22.5382
1811:07 PM15.612231.0337+15.4215
2411:13 PM15.691322.7305+7.03923
2911:18 PM15.555617.6926+2.13696

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.