Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 16, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 16, 2026, 12:32 AM to 1:01 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 16, 2026 at 12:32 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 13.8338. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 1:01 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

13.1617.4721.78Sep 16, 12:32 AM ET1:01 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 12:32 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

13.1617.4721.78Sep 16, 12:32 AM ET1:01 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 12:32 AM ET13.8338
Projected value at 1:01 AM ET19.1982
Actual value at 1:01 AM ET19.6384
Projected change across the window+5.3644
Actual change across the window+5.80451
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading23 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.92×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.92 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 23 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 29 (1:00 AM ET), where they sat 0.0152918 apart, and furthest at bar 18 (12:50 AM ET) with a gap of 8.01492. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 28 (1:00 AM ET), a move of +1.28554. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
112:33 AM20.130613.6836-6.44695
612:38 AM22.360317.8483-4.512
1212:44 AM21.655815.8559-5.79996
1812:50 AM20.594612.5797-8.01492
2412:56 AM19.919616.6456-3.27405
291:01 AM19.198219.6384+0.440109

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

AI chart assistant ADX for NT8 Yes. Alongside the regular ADX, PredictIndicators shows where the ADX is predicted to go next on NQ, updated as each bar closes, in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

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NinjaTrader future indicator values for Nasdaq 100 futures PredictIndicators draws the predicted next 30 candles of NQ on your NinjaTrader 8 chart, to the right of the last bar, and updates them in real time. They are predictions, not certainties. NinjaTrader 8 price prediction indicator →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.