Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 15, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 15, 2026, 2:02 PM to 2:31 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 15, 2026 at 2:02 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 9.70193. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 2:31 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

9.95115.3520.75Sep 15, 2:02 PM ET2:31 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 2:02 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

9.95115.3520.75Sep 15, 2:02 PM ET2:31 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 2:02 PM ET9.70193
Projected value at 2:31 PM ET17.2639
Actual value at 2:31 PM ET20.4973
Projected change across the window+7.56197
Actual change across the window+10.7954
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading26 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.70×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.70 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 26 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 24 (2:25 PM ET), where they sat 0.578123 apart, and furthest at bar 3 (2:05 PM ET) with a gap of 4.51504. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 23 (2:25 PM ET), a move of +1.18322. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
12:03 PM13.41269.51608-3.89653
62:08 PM14.72410.348-4.37602
122:14 PM16.199113.6474-2.55168
182:20 PM17.13813.8481-3.28989
242:26 PM17.145218.3795+1.23438
292:31 PM17.263920.4973+3.23344

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.