Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 15, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 15, 2026, 5:06 AM to 5:35 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 15, 2026 at 5:06 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 37.982. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 5:35 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

15.3833.5151.65Sep 15, 5:06 AM ET5:35 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 5:06 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

15.3833.5151.65Sep 15, 5:06 AM ET5:35 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 5:06 AM ET37.982
Projected value at 5:35 AM ET17.6645
Actual value at 5:35 AM ET51.5853
Projected change across the window-20.3174
Actual change across the window+13.6033
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading20 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.49×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall, while it rose instead. The projection overshot: it called for 1.49 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 20 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 12 (5:17 AM ET), where they sat 13.9007 apart, and furthest at bar 26 (5:32 AM ET) with a gap of 36.726. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 25 (5:31 AM ET), a move of +3.38405. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
15:07 AM13.161237.1945+24.0333
65:12 AM13.579631.505+17.9254
125:18 AM14.866729.1968+14.3301
185:24 AM16.043834.7871+18.7434
245:30 AM17.125347.62+30.4947
295:35 AM17.664551.5853+33.9208

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.