Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 14, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 14, 2026, 10:04 PM to 10:33 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 14, 2026 at 10:04 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 31.5657. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 10:33 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

21.0128.1335.26Sep 14, 10:04 PM ET10:33 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 10:04 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

21.0128.1335.26Sep 14, 10:04 PM ET10:33 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 10:04 PM ET31.5657
Projected value at 10:33 PM ET20.2502
Actual value at 10:33 PM ET25.3365
Projected change across the window-11.3155
Actual change across the window-6.2292
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading24 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.82×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.82 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 24 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 17 (10:20 PM ET), where they sat 1.5755 apart, and furthest at bar 5 (10:09 PM ET) with a gap of 14.4136. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 8 (10:12 PM ET), a move of -2.05449. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
110:05 PM24.00731.2794+7.27237
610:10 PM21.412734.3782+12.9655
1210:16 PM20.631124.8777+4.24668
1810:22 PM20.500223.54+3.0398
2410:28 PM20.370823.7055+3.33476
2910:33 PM20.250225.3365+5.08631

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Download NT8 AI ADX Yes. Alongside the regular ADX, PredictIndicators shows where the ADX is predicted to go next on NQ, updated as each bar closes, in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

NT8 how accurate are predicted candlesticks for Nasdaq 100 futures A prediction is an estimate, not a certainty. PredictIndicators publishes its predicted values next to what the market actually did, so they can be checked before relying on them. Predictions vs what happened →

Is there an AI chat inside MetaTrader 5 for NQ? Yes. The chat indicator sits on your NinjaTrader 8 or MetaTrader 5 NQ chart: ask where the prediction turns or what the open indicators agree on. It answers questions; it does not place trades. ChatGPT for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.