Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 14, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 14, 2026, 3:40 PM to 4:09 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 14, 2026 at 3:40 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 54.4724. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 4:09 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

25.8439.2652.67Sep 14, 3:40 PM ET4:09 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 3:40 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

25.8439.2652.67Sep 14, 3:40 PM ET4:09 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 3:40 PM ET54.4724
Projected value at 4:09 PM ET24.7705
Actual value at 4:09 PM ET24.0401
Projected change across the window-29.702
Actual change across the window-30.4324
Bars moving the same direction26 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.98×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.98 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 90% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 19 (3:58 PM ET), where they sat 0.0102397 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (3:40 PM ET) with a gap of 20.1918. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 8 (3:48 PM ET), a move of -2.39901. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
13:41 PM34.625452.8794+18.254
63:46 PM33.368345.0756+11.7073
123:52 PM30.265234.2519+3.98671
183:58 PM28.241228.2309-0.0102397
244:04 PM25.961525.0746-0.886854
294:09 PM24.770524.0401-0.730406

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Future price action ADX for NT8 PredictIndicators draws the predicted ADX for NQ up to 30 bars ahead on NinjaTrader 8 and MetaTrader 5 charts, next to the ADX you already use. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

NT8 ATR prediction accuracy for intraday futures A prediction is an estimate, not a certainty. PredictIndicators publishes its predicted values next to what the market actually did, so they can be checked before relying on them. Predictions vs what happened →

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.