Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 14, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 14, 2026, 1:08 PM to 1:37 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 14, 2026 at 1:08 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 33.8332. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 1:37 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

23.4428.3133.18Sep 14, 1:08 PM ET1:37 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 1:08 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

23.4428.3133.18Sep 14, 1:08 PM ET1:37 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 1:08 PM ET33.8332
Projected value at 1:37 PM ET22.7839
Actual value at 1:37 PM ET24.3518
Projected change across the window-11.0493
Actual change across the window-9.4814
Bars moving the same direction21 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.17×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.17 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 72% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 19 (1:26 PM ET), where they sat 1.24437 apart, and furthest at bar 13 (1:21 PM ET) with a gap of 4.41599. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 7 (1:15 PM ET), a move of -1.31167. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
11:09 PM29.446133.3703+3.92424
61:14 PM26.356729.1016+2.74491
121:20 PM24.64828.8302+4.18219
181:26 PM23.834625.079+1.24437
241:32 PM23.192524.4553+1.26274
291:37 PM22.783924.3518+1.5679

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Download predictive ADX for NinjaTrader 8 Yes. Alongside the regular ADX, PredictIndicators shows where the ADX is predicted to go next on NQ, updated as each bar closes, in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

Can MT5 show predicted NQ candles? PredictIndicators brings predicted candles to MetaTrader 5: the next 30 NQ bars appear on your MT5 chart and update in real time. A prediction is an estimate, not a certainty. MetaTrader 5 price prediction indicator →

MetaTrader how is prediction accuracy measured for NQ A prediction is an estimate, not a certainty. PredictIndicators publishes its predicted values next to what the market actually did, so they can be checked before relying on them. Predictions vs what happened →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.