Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 14, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 14, 2026, 10:44 AM to 11:13 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 14, 2026 at 10:44 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 53.3309. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 11:13 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

22.1936.7851.37Sep 14, 10:44 AM ET11:13 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 10:44 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

22.1936.7851.37Sep 14, 10:44 AM ET11:13 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 10:44 AM ET53.3309
Projected value at 11:13 AM ET22.9466
Actual value at 11:13 AM ET23.3449
Projected change across the window-30.3843
Actual change across the window-29.986
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.01×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.01 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 30 (11:13 AM ET), where they sat 0.398278 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (10:44 AM ET) with a gap of 26.4831. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 17 (11:01 AM ET), a move of -2.24697. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
110:45 AM26.468652.2985+25.83
610:50 AM23.866648.4528+24.5862
1210:56 AM22.930640.7823+17.8517
1811:02 AM22.792230.5172+7.72497
2411:08 AM22.898520.5789-2.31962
2911:13 AM22.946623.3449+0.398278

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.