Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 14, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 14, 2026, 8:02 AM to 8:31 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 14, 2026 at 8:02 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 35.6065. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 8:31 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

23.8630.7437.61Sep 14, 8:02 AM ET8:31 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 8:02 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

23.8630.7437.61Sep 14, 8:02 AM ET8:31 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 8:02 AM ET35.6065
Projected value at 8:31 AM ET22.9387
Actual value at 8:31 AM ET26.6146
Projected change across the window-12.6678
Actual change across the window-8.99195
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading19 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.41×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.41 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 19 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 23 (8:24 AM ET), where they sat 1.55366 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (8:02 AM ET) with a gap of 10.5706. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 17 (8:19 AM ET), a move of -1.91288. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
18:03 AM26.566536.3747+9.80819
68:08 AM29.212837.9731+8.76034
128:14 AM26.921934.3553+7.43341
188:20 AM24.819630.2866+5.46699
248:26 AM23.83926.0308+2.19175
298:31 AM22.938726.6146+3.67584

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.