Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 14, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 14, 2026, 6:33 AM to 7:02 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 14, 2026 at 6:33 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 24.7886. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 7:02 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

24.6932.941.12Sep 14, 6:33 AM ET7:02 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 6:33 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

24.6932.941.12Sep 14, 6:33 AM ET7:02 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 6:33 AM ET24.7886
Projected value at 7:02 AM ET23.5824
Actual value at 7:02 AM ET26.3651
Projected change across the window-1.2062
Actual change across the window+1.57648
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading25 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.77×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall, while it rose instead. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.77 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 25 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 14 (6:46 AM ET), where they sat 0.125936 apart, and furthest at bar 1 (6:34 AM ET) with a gap of 17.0637. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 12 (6:45 AM ET), a move of +2.19075. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
16:34 AM42.22125.1573-17.0637
66:39 AM40.2427.0953-13.1446
126:45 AM34.2131.7006-2.50939
186:51 AM29.122734.0173+4.89455
246:57 AM25.672930.6598+4.98686
297:02 AM23.582426.3651+2.78269

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Buy MetaTrader AI ADX Yes. Alongside the regular ADX, PredictIndicators shows where the ADX is predicted to go next on NQ, updated as each bar closes, in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

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Next candle prediction indicator for NQ Yes. On a NinjaTrader 8 or MT5 NQ chart, PredictIndicators shows the predicted open, high, low and close of the coming bars to the right of the last bar. Next candle prediction indicator →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.