Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 14, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 14, 2026, 3:25 AM to 3:54 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 14, 2026 at 3:25 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 41.1206. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 3:54 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

16.5828.139.62Sep 14, 3:25 AM ET3:54 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 3:25 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

16.5828.139.62Sep 14, 3:25 AM ET3:54 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 3:25 AM ET41.1206
Projected value at 3:54 AM ET22.7899
Actual value at 3:54 AM ET15.3877
Projected change across the window-18.3308
Actual change across the window-25.7329
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.71×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.71 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 16 (3:40 AM ET), where they sat 0.838277 apart, and furthest at bar 5 (3:30 AM ET) with a gap of 17.9351. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 10 (3:35 AM ET), a move of -2.59605. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
13:26 AM25.934941.163+15.2281
63:31 AM22.716640.5679+17.8514
123:37 AM21.953227.9957+6.04251
183:43 AM21.890417.6071-4.28328
243:49 AM22.427718.1405-4.28718
293:54 AM22.789915.3877-7.40216

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.