Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 14, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 14, 2026, 2:10 AM to 2:39 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 14, 2026 at 2:10 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 35.2473. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 2:39 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

18.8227.5636.3Sep 14, 2:10 AM ET2:39 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 2:10 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

18.8227.5636.3Sep 14, 2:10 AM ET2:39 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 2:10 AM ET35.2473
Projected value at 2:39 AM ET20.9942
Actual value at 2:39 AM ET18.5222
Projected change across the window-14.2532
Actual change across the window-16.7251
Bars moving the same direction22 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading24 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.85×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.85 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 76% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 24 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 17 (2:26 AM ET), where they sat 0.064015 apart, and furthest at bar 9 (2:19 AM ET) with a gap of 9.3636. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 13 (2:23 AM ET), a move of -2.38303. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
12:11 AM31.994435.5768+3.58241
62:16 AM30.287334.297+4.00963
122:22 AM26.115130.9543+4.83917
182:28 AM23.728722.9715-0.757208
242:34 AM21.895319.2057-2.68954
292:39 AM20.994218.5222-2.47197

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.