Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 14, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 14, 2026, 1:26 AM to 1:55 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 14, 2026 at 1:26 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 17.0745. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 1:55 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

15.7318.120.46Sep 14, 1:26 AM ET1:55 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 1:26 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

15.7318.120.46Sep 14, 1:26 AM ET1:55 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 1:26 AM ET17.0745
Projected value at 1:55 AM ET18.5598
Actual value at 1:55 AM ET16.0804
Projected change across the window+1.48536
Actual change across the window-0.994062
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading20 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.49×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise, while it fell instead. The projection overshot: it called for 1.49 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 20 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 3 (1:28 AM ET), where they sat 0.0269027 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (1:26 AM ET) with a gap of 3.30604. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 28 (1:54 AM ET), a move of -1.88944. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
11:27 AM19.806417.9908-1.81567
61:32 AM18.622120.0873+1.46523
121:38 AM18.153816.2658-1.88795
181:44 AM18.519516.061-2.45853
241:50 AM18.779619.8028+1.02315
291:55 AM18.559816.0804-2.47943

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.