Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 11, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 11, 2026, 12:34 PM to 1:03 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 11, 2026 at 12:34 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 30.6226. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 1:03 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

20.4328.6636.88Sep 11, 12:34 PM ET1:03 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 12:34 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

20.4328.6636.88Sep 11, 12:34 PM ET1:03 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 12:34 PM ET30.6226
Projected value at 1:03 PM ET22.1992
Actual value at 1:03 PM ET20.9034
Projected change across the window-8.42339
Actual change across the window-9.71922
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading28 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.87×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.87 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 28 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 5 (12:38 PM ET), where they sat 0.0224419 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (12:34 PM ET) with a gap of 7.36189. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 6 (12:40 PM ET), a move of -2.56886. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
112:35 PM36.392431.8949-4.49753
612:40 PM30.88329.5074-1.37554
1212:46 PM26.752627.1711+0.418448
1812:52 PM24.299120.1347-4.1644
2412:58 PM23.075219.402-3.67317
291:03 PM22.199220.9034-1.29583

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.