Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 11, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 11, 2026, 2:50 AM to 3:19 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 11, 2026 at 2:50 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 21.7966. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 3:19 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

18.9825.3131.64Sep 11, 2:50 AM ET3:19 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 2:50 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

18.9825.3131.64Sep 11, 2:50 AM ET3:19 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 2:50 AM ET21.7966
Projected value at 3:19 AM ET21.0011
Actual value at 3:19 AM ET20.3001
Projected change across the window-0.79551
Actual change across the window-1.49655
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading24 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.53×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.53 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 24 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 23 (3:12 AM ET), where they sat 0.258179 apart, and furthest at bar 14 (3:04 AM ET) with a gap of 10.4264. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 19 (3:09 AM ET), a move of -2.31953. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
12:51 AM22.250321.7504-0.499837
62:56 AM22.94326.2009+3.25795
123:02 AM22.033431.1796+9.14626
183:08 AM21.580627.3966+5.81603
243:14 AM21.28219.4857-1.79625
293:19 AM21.001120.3001-0.701045

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.