Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 11, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 11, 2026, 1:15 AM to 1:44 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 11, 2026 at 1:15 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 21.7656. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 1:44 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

21.4425.0428.64Sep 11, 1:15 AM ET1:44 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 1:15 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

21.4425.0428.64Sep 11, 1:15 AM ET1:44 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 1:15 AM ET21.7656
Projected value at 1:44 AM ET23.704
Actual value at 1:44 AM ET23.226
Projected change across the window+1.93838
Actual change across the window+1.46042
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading25 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.33×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The projection overshot: it called for 1.33 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 25 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 19 (1:33 AM ET), where they sat 0.320077 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (1:15 AM ET) with a gap of 5.03747. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 1 (1:16 AM ET), a move of +1.67421. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
11:16 AM27.642323.4398-4.20244
61:21 AM28.205224.8046-3.40061
121:27 AM26.591828.7796+2.18782
181:33 AM25.280224.9601-0.320077
241:39 AM24.017521.5898-2.4277
291:44 AM23.70423.226-0.477963

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.